Domain appraisals on .com.au's

[Christopher]

Interesting so whoever sold hardware-com-au made a big loss recently. 36116 USD to $33,333 AUD

 

[snoopy]

Interesting so whoever sold hardware-com-au made a big loss recently. 36116 USD to $33,333 AUD

Would just be a currency conversion calculation, AUD was probably high when it sold.

 

[Scott.L]

Have a look at the screenshot below and you can see how the number of high sales has been on a sharp decline in recent years.

My gut feeling is this domain would sell for less than the prior price. Are you offering 150k Scott? If so I will contact the owner.

Nah, it’s an analogy not an offer...hence why i suggested I'm certain as the sun rises in the west I'm not 100% certain I would pay that much because as i wrote in my looong post, I would require the "business connections" within this niche to really get the most out of it financially, and I simply haven’t got those connections; I suspect this may also be true of the current owner. If an auction was held and the pricing was visible on another platform and it did push that $100k bid then I would be tempted to place a silent bid. Why? everyone has a secret to their success.

Your opinion about the decline in prices over time is not a reliable measure to determine the "investment health" of the market - every domain name in that list is "unique" and with this in mind, the domain market has no certain arbitrage in its determination of a domain name value; it is simply battled out between competitors until won. The giants [corporations] have the money to flood the market with marketing, but small to medium businesses are more incline to buy the advantage of a good strong brandable domain name to compete against those giants, unlike the global .com brand which has the advantage of millions of corporations ready to get their hands on a decent domain that symbolises their entire market.

the fact is, no one can have sufficient data to compare each word in a market, even the .com struggles to have this data - so who can ever know a domains "concrete value" as a price tag on a shop shelf - we must look to the investment health of the market that the domain is connected to and how competitive and volatile it is; how many giants live in the field...are the gardens shadowed, over grown, strangled, infested with rodents or getting some sun. you know what i mean.

the decline in prices paid for domains is an illusion of perspective and not an accurate measure in determining the health of the domain market at large. Accordingly, the prices paid over the years are an indication of that market in which the domain exists; within its own competing market forces.

 

[findtim]

illusion of perspective

yep.

So we enter the recurring debate ! its been solved a million times so here it is again. just repeating what others have said.

you buy, you sell, thus you need to make the buyer see the value. THATS all it is ! and thats why successful domainers are successful domainers.........because they can make people SEEEEEE the value.
FORGET all the whining on the market is down, its YOU who is down, sorry to tell you but it happens everyday, its also called realestate, cars, holidays, fridges, carpets, which don't end in .com.au but purchased from real estate agents, car salespeople etcccc.

you are NOT a domainer, you are a ?********** if you can't fill in the blanks then get out and buy stamps.

or you buy , you dev, you need to create something that returns the investment 10 fold and most likely you need to KNOW the vertical implicitly.

or you buy a doggy name, lets say "fetch" and some marketing guru names a tv channel service that name without checking the .com.au availability and you score big ( note: in the end they got a bargain)
tim

 

[snoopy]

Your opinion about the decline in prices over time is not a reliable measure to determine the "investment health" of the market - every domain name in that list is "unique" and with this in mind, the domain market has no certain arbitrage in its determination of a domain name value; it is simply battled out between competitors until won. The giants [corporations] have the money to flood the market with marketing, but small to medium businesses are more incline to buy the advantage of a good strong brandable domain name to compete against those giants, unlike the global .com brand which has the advantage of millions of corporations ready to get their hands on a decent domain that symbolises their entire market.

the fact is, no one can have sufficient data to compare each word in a market, even the .com struggles to have this data - so who can ever know a domains "concrete value" as a price tag on a shop shelf - we must look to the investment health of the market that the domain is connected to and how competitive and volatile it is; how many giants live in the field...are the gardens shadowed, over grown, strangled, infested with rodents or getting some sun. you know what i mean.

the decline in prices paid for domains is an illusion of perspective and not an accurate measure in determining the health of the domain market at large. Accordingly, the prices paid over the years are an indication of that market in which the domain exists; within its own competing market forces.

The decline can be seen in the prices being reported. The uniqueness argument is an excuse to ignore the obvious conclusion from the data.

People think up all sorts of similar excuses in the domain world regarding poorly performing extensions that they have invested in, "Most sales are under NDA in this extension", "The names being sold are lower quality over the last few years" blah blah blah.........anything but just admitting the market is weak.

 

[snoopy]

FORGET all the whining on the market is down, its YOU who is down, sorry to tell you but it happens everyday, its also called realestate, cars, holidays, fridges, carpets, which don't end in .com.au but purchased from real estate agents, car salespeople etcccc.

The problem is that if you are in a bad market it is very difficult to make money. You could be an excellent domainer but it you are investing in .info or .mobi, or new tld's or .tv the odds are massively against you. Certain extensions just get little or no growth year after year.

 

[Scott.L]

the perceived decline is ONLY relevent to the domains offered for sale - the good domains are held and utilised the lower quality domains are sold off ...simple as that. A domain name is valued as a result of the markets investment and economic activity in which the domain reflects.

if you put toys-com-au or flowers-com-au or any other name up for auction every year then you would see the domain names value by its own market, and naturally in this way you would see a decline because market arbitraige would come into effect.

 

[snoopy]

the perceived decline is ONLY relevent to the domains offered for sale - the good domains are held and utilised the lower quality domains are sold off ...simple as that.

Another excuse.

 

[Scott.L]

perhapes the excuse is found in the timing of ones domain choices and not in the perceived decline of domain sale prices due to the quality of the domain offered. The value of a domain is the same as the stock market, it is all built on belief not facts, everyone sells the fact everyone buys belief.

 

[snoopy]

perhapes the excuse is found in the timing of ones domain choices and not in the perceived decline of domain sale prices due to the quality of the domain offered. The value of a domain is the same as the stock market, it is all built on belief not facts, everyone sells the fact everyone buys belief.

I don't think there is any point in time where people have bought .com.au's and are now sitting on particularly good results.

The .com.au market has done badly over 20 years in my view, basically the entire time it has existed the returns haven't been great. Go back 10 years ago and I was arguing with Mr Lye about the same stuff. 10 years later nothing has changed. The same thing could be said about .info, .tv, the majority of other country codes.

 

[DomainNames]

I don't think there is any point in time where people have bought .com.au's and are now sitting on particularly good results.

The .com.au market has done badly over 20 years in my view, basically the entire time it has existed the returns haven't been great. Go back 10 years ago and I was arguing with Mr Lye about the same stuff. 10 years later nothing has changed. The same thing could be said about .info, .tv, the majority of other country codes.

I would not agree. Also based on personal sales the ROI has been excellent over the last 2 years in particular.
It really comes down to the quality of the name.
Looking at the market the fact is 2 word names had little value 20 or 10 years ago but now we see those names often selling for at least $x,xxx . The sales lists are full of them.
There is still the chance to hand register a .com.au today for $20, make money via monetisation and if you want to later sell it for $100+. Do the maths and look at that ROI compared to anything else.

 

[Scott.L]

I don't think there is any point in time where people have bought .com.au's and are now sitting on particularly good results.

The .com.au market has done badly over 20 years in my view, basically the entire time it has existed the returns haven't been great. Go back 10 years ago and I was arguing with Mr Lye about the same stuff. 10 years later nothing has changed. The same thing could be said about .info, .tv, the majority of other country codes.

Since December 2002 the total number of registered .au domain names has increased by more than 700%. Overwhelmingly these domain names are in the com.au range, accounting for more than 85% of the total.



data taken from behind the dot - ausregistry

Decline?
Exactly what are you suggesting is in decline?
.com.au market is strong and relevant to our growing internet usage. I explained why domains differ in pricing and how they reflect the markets in which they exist and that there is no means to meassure the value of domains collectively or in issolation - even if a domain is publically auctioned multiple times across multiple economic conditions who can possibly determine its accurate value other than the buyer and seller? value can only be meassured or assessed by the health of that markets competition and keyword relevancy.

...

 

[snoopy]

Since December 2002 the total number of registered .au domain names has increased by more than 700%. Overwhelmingly these domain names are in the com.au range, accounting for more than 85% of the total.
View attachment 370
View attachment 371

data taken from behind the dot - ausregistry

Decline?
Exactly what are you suggesting is in decline?
.com.au market is strong and relevant to our growing internet usage. I explained why domains differ in pricing and how they reflect the markets in which they exist and that there is no means to meassure the value of domains collectively or in issolation - even if a domain is publically auctioned multiple times across multiple economic conditions who can possibly determine its accurate value other than the buyer and seller? value can only be meassured or assessed by the health of that markets competition and keyword relevancy.

...

Actual registration volumes has very little do with domain values. As an example during the .com bust .com values fell by over 50%+ whilst .com registration numbers barely moved. That time was a bloodbath but if you looked simply at registration volumes everything appears rosey.

https://www.zooknic.com/Domains/counts.html

With your chart you could take just about any tld and find similar growth, has nothing much to do with aftermarket prices. Having said that you can see how even registration growth has trailed off particularly in the last 5 years, it looks like one side of a bell chart.

Other examples of extensions that have done badly with similar registration charts,

http://www.registrarstats.com/TLDHistoryChart.aspx?TLDName=NET (prices well down in recent years)

http://www.registrarstats.com/TLDHistoryChart.aspx?TLDName=MOBI (registrations kept on growing until 2014 despite values crashing in 2008).

.uk/co.uk is a another good example, market values have fallen heavily, registration numbers haven't.

 

[Scott.L]

As an example during the .com bust .com values fell by over 50%+ whilst .com registration numbers barely moved.

The stock markets gobally coincided with the same movements in price as did domain values? what changed... where is the current ASX at, its highest peak in years.

Do you remember the IDNX platform?



Domain prices have an economic foundation. They are not detached from the economy in general. On the contrary, domain price changes are very similar to changes in the NASDAQ 100 index, the stock prices of internet giant Google or total revenues from online marketing (US). The strong correlation shows that domain name buyers and sellers make economically motivated price decisions. Domain markets are not a cloud-cuckoo-land where dreamers trade esoteric goods at imaginary prices.
comments quoted from - idnx.com/

.

 

[eBranding.com.au]

.uk/co.uk is a another good example, market values have fallen heavily, registration numbers haven't.

I don't share your views on the .au namespace, but I do agree that the UK market has taken a battering in recent years.

 

[snoopy]

Scott, what does all of that have to do with your suggestion that registration volumes and values of domains are linked?

 

[Scott.L]

indicates the steady values for domain names - if "creates" dropped suddenly then that reflects the decline of social value of the internet.

Three key approaches – the cost approach, the market approach and the income approach.

You must consider all three to Value a domain.

.

 

[snoopy]

indicates the steady values for domain names - if "creates" dropped suddenly then that reflects the decline of social value of the internet.

Three key approaches – the cost approach, the market approach and the income approach.

You must consider all three to Value a domain.

.

As I said, even during the .com bust registration volumes barely dropped, whilst values in the aftermarket fell sharply. Think you are off on a tangent with all this stuff about different approaches, it is very clear that .com.au values have fallen.

 

[Scott.L]

As I said, even during the .com bust registration volumes barely dropped, whilst values in the aftermarket fell sharply. Think you are off on a tangent with all this stuff about different approaches, it is very clear that .com.au values have fallen.

Is it clear? are .com.au values in decline? how do you assess that decline? what method do you use to calculate that decline?

what if the only data you had available was the following about BHP?
Based on real data from ASX:
BHP in 1999 = $15 unit price
BHP in 2001 = $25 unit price
BHP in 2016 = $15 unit price
BHP in 2017 = $25 unit price

BHP is the same price when it listed 20 years ago?


.

 

[snoopy]

Is it clear? are .com.au values in decline? how do you assess that decline? what method do you use to calculate that decline?

You look at sales data including the highest sales in the market and draw a conclusion from that.

what if the only data you had available was the following about BHP?
Based on real data from ASX:
BHP in 1999 = $15 unit price
BHP in 2001 = $25 unit price
BHP in 2016 = $15 unit price
BHP in 2017 = $25 unit price

BHP is the same price when it listed 20 years ago?


.

You adjust for stock splits etc and do a calculation. In your case Bhp merged with Billiton so that needs to be taken account of in the calculation.