ccTLD's where the smart money is...

[DavidL]

As I've been saying for years, this is where the growth is. Com values peaked years ago which ccTLDs are still going from strength to strength. Congrats to all .AU investors!!

Ron Jackson is certainly very bullish on them..

For the first time since we started tracking the domain aftermarket seven years ago, there are more non .com domains on our weekly all-extension Top 20 Sales Chart than .coms for the second consecutive week. Last week non .com's outnumbered .coms 11-9 and the score was the same this week (in both cases the non .com contingent included eight ccTLDs and three non .com gTLDs). The rise of ccTLDs in recent years has made this anomaly possible. The question is will this remain an anomaly or will it become a fairly common occurrence?

http://www.dnjournal.com/domainsales.htm

 

[snoopy]

The problem is there is 200 different country codes out there. If that market all combined is bigger than .com does it make it a viable market to invest in? Out side of the biggest cctlds I'd say the opportunities are limited.

For example how often do you see dnjournal reporting on someone buying and selling a .com.au's for a profit, have they ever? I'm not talking about fresh reges, I mean buying something for $XXXX and selling it for $XXXX. How can you even liquidate that $1000 name that you've bought? At what venue? How long will it take? Where is the active market that you and me can easily sell into?

Of the .com.au's I've registered the offers are generally a few years revenue at the most. It is typically 3 figure offers for fairly good keyword names.

Even for stuff like 2 character names the offers would barely cover the holding costs over the years. Then when you do sell you've got paperwork for AUDA and transfer fees, it all saps liquidity and reduces profitability. AUDA always did try and configure things so it didn't work well for investing in though (I'm not criticizing on that count though, it is probably a reason why the extension is so ubiquitous in this country).

As far as the .com market peaking, it peaked around mid-late 2007 but it is cyclical. From 2000-2002 it probably lost 90% of its value, then there was another big boom. How many people got rich trading in .com.au over the last 10 years? There was no big boom where .com.au owners were selling names for crazy money.

I'm not predicting .com is about to rise (I don't see it personally) but it is along with selected cctlds are the only markets with real liquidity in them. .com.au is still mainly an extension for development in my view. It is worth dabbling in for investment but historically the performance can't simply be gleaned by growth in cc tld sales generally.

 

[Billy01]

I agree

Never thought I'd say it but values are rubbish unless you're setting up a shop front

 

[DavidL]

Hooked!

The problem is there is 200 different country codes out there. If that market all combined is bigger than .com does it make it a viable market to invest in? Out side of the biggest cctlds I'd say the opportunities are limited.

Agree - there is a minimum size to make searching for opportunuties viable - on a full time basis anyway. But Australia with 1.8m .au registered, strong recognition and an affluent and quickly growing population of 23m, it's got to be in there.

For example how often do you see dnjournal reporting on someone buying and selling a .com.au's for a profit, have they ever? I'm not talking about fresh reges, I mean buying something for $XXXX and selling it for $XXXX. How can you even liquidate that $1000 name that you've bought? At what venue? How long will it take? Where is the active market that you and me can easily sell into?

Snoopy, deregulation only happened 2 years ago so of course any aftermarket purchases and resells within that time are going to be few and far between. Hell, even for .com it would be rare to see a domain bought and sold within that timeframe.

And why are you excluding fresh-reg's from your investment analysis. Why doesn't selling a hand-reg domain for a healthy profit count?

Of the .com.au's I've registered the offers are generally a few years revenue at the most. It is typically 3 figure offers for fairly good keyword names.

I could have sworn you said on another forum that .au's will only ever generate negligible revenue??

Anyway you've stated above that for you, the offers are typically around 3-figures and that equates to a few years revenue.

Can you elaborate? Are we looking at $200/year revenue and offers of $600, say?

If (and of course it's up to you to say whether this is close to the mark) that is the case, isn't that fantastic? Generating a 2000% return every year on your renewal fees without even having to sell it?

Given you got into domains, what 10 years ago, aren't you kicking yourself that you only regged handful of .au domains?

Even for stuff like 2 character names the offers would barely cover the holding costs over the years. Then when you do sell you've got paperwork for AUDA and transfer fees, it all saps liquidity and reduces profitability.

Well my only experience of 2 letter domains is as follows:

Registered LL.com.au around 5 years ago. Sold for $4K about a year ago
Registered CL.net.au around 3 years ago. Sold 2 years ago for $520
Caught XS.com.au on the drop about 1 year ago. Sold for $3,250

Naturally I am holding plenty more that receive regular offers.

How many people got rich trading in .com.au over the last 10 years? There was no big boom where .com.au owners were selling names for crazy money.

You've missed the point. The actual number of people that made money is irrelevant as it's relative to the sixe of the market.

The key question when investing in any market is "What are the chances that I will make money". One good way to answer that is to look at the proportion of people who have done just that.

In .com, you might say there would be what 100 people (?) who 'got rich' trading in .com. But that's out of how many thousand who have given it a shot (but ultimately lost money). 200,000?

Namepros has 172,000 registered members so the figure is probably up around there if not a lot more. 100 from 200,000 means only 1 in 2,000 people 'made it'

Now in .au, how many people. Maybe 5 or so people have done the same. But that's out of more like 200 who have given it a shot. That's 1 in 40.

Hmm... 1 in 40 or 1 in 2,000???

I'm not predicting .com is about to rise (I don't see it personally) but it is along with selected cctlds are the only markets with real liquidity in them. .com.au is still mainly an extension for development in my view. It is worth dabbling in for investment but historically the performance can't simply be gleaned by growth in cc tld sales generally.

I think you would say that about any domain market. Successful performance should be derived from a mix of sales, monetisation and development.

 

[snoopy]

Agree - there is a minimum size to make searching for opportunuties viable - on a full time basis anyway. But Australia with 1.8m .au registered, strong recognition and an affluent and quickly growing population of 23m, it's got to be in there.

I'm sure there is, but I don't think this is some amazing opportunity compared to other areas of the market.

Snoopy, deregulation only happened 2 years ago so of course any aftermarket purchases and resells within that time are going to be few and far between. Hell, even for .com it would be rare to see a domain bought and sold within that timeframe.

The point is there is a liquid market for .com domains. If you want to invest a certain amount or sell a certain amount you can do it in a fairly straight forward manner. For .com.au I don't think there is any liquid marketplace to sell at. Last time I argued with you about it your best example was the Fabulous auction from 18 months ago. (ie a market that doesn't actually exist today).

And why are you excluding fresh-reg's from your investment analysis. Why doesn't selling a hand-reg domain for a healthy profit count?

Because fresh registrations are hit and miss sales. For every one that sells 100 don't. If I have $XXXX today and want to invest it where can and put it? What can I put it into where I know I can sell it again tomorrow in a pretty simple manner.

I could have sworn you said on another forum that .au's will only ever generate negligible revenue??

......think of 5 people sitting in a circle, they start with a sentence that someone actually said and gradually it changes a little, by the time the whisper has been passed around the comment has changed completely I do remember saying there wasn't a lot of parking revenue in .com.au. I don't remember saying the above though.

Can you elaborate? Are we looking at $200/year revenue and offers of $600, say?

Yes, it is that kind of thing.

If (and of course it's up to you to say whether this is close to the mark) that is the case, isn't that fantastic? Generating a 2000% return every year on your renewal fees without even having to sell it?

It is a good think to have names which generating parking income beyond the reg fees, but these names are few and far between.

Given you got into domains, what 10 years ago, aren't you kicking yourself that you only regged handful of .au domains?

No because the names I registered in .com.au 10 years aren't worth a lot more than the reg fees & business registration fees paid since that time. In my view the return from .com domains over the same time period has been at least 10 times higher.

Well my only experience of 2 letter domains is as follows:

Registered LL.com.au around 5 years ago. Sold for $4K about a year ago
Registered CL.net.au around 3 years ago. Sold 2 years ago for $520
Caught XS.com.au on the drop about 1 year ago. Sold for $3,250

Naturally I am holding plenty more that receive regular offers.

To calculate an ROI you need to include all names, not just the ones that sold.

In .com, you might say there would be what 100 people (?) who 'got rich' trading in .com. But that's out of how many thousand who have given it a shot (but ultimately lost money). 200,000?

Namepros has 172,000 registered members so the figure is probably up around there if not a lot more. 100 from 200,000 means only 1 in 2,000 people 'made it'

Now in .au, how many people. Maybe 5 or so people have done the same. But that's out of more like 200 who have given it a shot. That's 1 in 40.

Hmm... 1 in 40 or 1 in 2,000???

This sounds like fuzzy logic numbers, the kind you make up so it suits your argument. I don't think these statistics are based on anything.

Successful performance should be derived from a mix of sales, monetisation and development.

Why should it?

 

[DavidL]

OK I'm not going to quote your responses bit by bit - I thiunk this thread is already looking a little 'stripey'!

However the major points are:

There have been several successful auctions just recently both on Netfleet & Drop. I believe close to $100K worth were sold over the 2 marketplaces in auctions over the last couple of months. Then there's our aftermarket platfrom. It regularly chugs out $30-$50K in sales each month.

These aren't huge numbers but again, relative to the size of the market it's pretty good. You always forget about relativity. Lets compare sales on Sedo with sales on Netfleet for example.

Sedo have about 10m .com domains listed. They sell about 3,000 per month (up from 1,000/month in 2007). That's approximately 1 in every 3,500 listed domains sells each month.

Netfleet have about 30,000 domains listed. We sell about 30 domains every month. That's 1 in every 1,000 listed domains sells each month.

So it's just a question of scale. The few people who do invest in .au will find it to be just as liquid as the other markets.


Regarding my ROI in 2-letter domains, you're quite right. I do need to include all the names. I have about 80 2-letter .au names all up. Held them on average about 3 years so that's another $3K in reg fees over that time. But then parking revenue does offset that cost a little. Say $1,000 over those three years ($4/domain/year).

So total cost $3,000, total revenue $7,770 + $1,000 and I still have 80 domains that are gaining in value. Still think 2-letter .au's have been a terrible investment?


So, you don't like my logic re chances of 'success' in .au vs .com. Would you care to put some numbers on it yourself? You can't just dismiss it as 'fuzzy logic' and offer no contrary idea. Go on, have a stab.


You're last comment I can't work out? How can investment performance exclude sales, yield and appreciation? Standard accountancy, I would have thought

 

[WG2010]

 

[snoopy]

There have been several successful auctions just recently both on Netfleet & Drop. I believe close to $100K worth were sold over the 2 marketplaces in auctions over the last couple of months. Then there's our aftermarket platfrom. It regularly chugs out $30-$50K in sales each month.

Are the stated Drop auctions something people can list their own names on? That is why I am talking about. Not places where people can buy but not sell.

Sedo have about 10m .com domains listed. They sell about 3,000 per month (up from 1,000/month in 2007). That's approximately 1 in every 3,500 listed domains sells each month.

Netfleet have about 30,000 domains listed. We sell about 30 domains every month. That's 1 in every 1,000 listed domains sells each month.

What is better, a really bad sales ratio, or a really really bad sales ratio?

Whether it is 1:1000 or 1:3500 suggests to me most of the names are not worth anything, 90% plus.

If your argument is that there is no market for most of the names on Sedo I agree. I'm talking about names that are actually worth something, can they be bought and sold in a liquid market? If you think name xxxx.com.au is worth $1000, can I sell it for $1000 via a pretty simple manner or not?

eg on Sedo you can list in a monthly auction and the name will sell for roughly market price.

So total cost $3,000, total revenue $7,770 + $1,000 and I still have 80 domains that are gaining in value. Still think 2-letter .au's have been a terrible investment?

I did say they were terrible, I said "Even for stuff like 2 character names the offers would barely cover the holding costs over the years." [following on from your comments on holding .com.au's for 10 years]. A 2 letter .com.au registered 10 years until today would mean approximately $600 in holding costs (domain renewals and business registration fees).

So, you don't like my logic re chances of 'success' in .au vs .com. Would you care to put some numbers on it yourself? You can't just dismiss it as 'fuzzy logic' and offer no contrary idea. Go on, have a stab.

I don't like fact that you've made up a whole lot of numbers to try and make an argument. I could make up a whole lot of numbers as well but it wouldn't achieve anything. I don't have any stats on it and I don't think any exists. Not until domainers start publishing their tax returns each year.

You're last comment I can't work out? How can investment performance exclude sales, yield and appreciation? Standard accountancy, I would have thought

I don't follow the question. You stated "Successful performance should be derived from a mix of sales, monetisation and development." What does that have to do with accounting?

 

[shags38]

fascinating thread - as a newbie I am taking this all in. Please standby with a telephone in hand - you may need to assist me to get to a hospital soon to have my heart attack treated. There I was sitting there minding my own business about 4 months ago when I read an article about making (easy) money buying and selling domain names, so being a true believer in the written word I invested in this business only to find out that nobody really wants the names I created or indeed any of the ones I have purchased in the aftermarket.

AND NOW ...... after reading this thread thus far I find that when someone does eventually decide they will buy a name they will pay pennies for it and about 10 years after I have paid shillings for it.

Snoopy - I haven't agreed with your take on 3D however I do agree with some of what you have said in this thread - especially about a viable selling venue, albeit the bigger issue is finding buyers, not a marketplace to sell easily and freely to a customer base that doesn't know that it has an interest in buying a domain.

David or Mark - when are we going to be able to sell our domains on your aftermarket sales auction thingamebob? You can have 20% from me when I sell - in fact you can have more, because using simple accounting methodology a penny in the bank is better than a dollar in someone elses bank - I figure the only people making money out of domaining in this country are the registrars.

......... Sorry for the break ......... had a young Indian guy knocking on the door trying to convert me from Telstra to Optus ......... he just didn't see the value in quitting doorknocking in the cold for the opportunity to sit in the warmth of a study and make money selling domain names. Makes me feel kinda sick inside to think that a student from the impoverished backwoods of northern India can see the folly and I didn't.

So my being disconsolate about my new chosen profession presents a golden opportunity for you guys - you can have first refusal on my portfolio of 1856 names and 6 active sites for a measley ............. wait for it ......... first one to send the email gets it ........ the time stamp on the email is the validation of first receipt ........ ready, ........ $1,236,000.78 ......... divided by 1856 = real cheap per domain ....... OOOPS, I used a dollar sign, meant to use Indonesian Rupea

Now seriously ......... I have rugbyleague3d.com.au and 3drugbyleague.com.au listed for sale ........ the state of origin was broadcast in 3d (to a small audience granted) and will be again next year, the year after etc. Do you know what the highest bid I have received so far is ...... yep ... zero bids ....... LOL, not even $50. So I am with you Snoopy ..... I see no commercially sound indicators at all for investment in .au domains but then again I don't see any sound commercial indicators for investing in any domains of any extension, including .com and the new .co.

Smart business is making up their own names and we are picking up the scraps. When I am continually told that a names like cell3d.com or 3dfootball.com.au as examples are of no value beyond the recouping of registration fees I get closer and closer to reaching for the valium

DISCLAIMER: the opinions above are NOT those of the writer when he is having a good day however may possibly be the distorted manic view of the writer when he has had a real shocker of a day. The writer is still deciding whether he had a good day or not.

 

[Jonathan]

Snoopy, you definitely make some compelling points, but the evidence undeniably shows that the Aussie market has been growing rapidly over the last couple of years. I mean look at how far we've come already - a secondary market in Australia didn't exist 24 months ago, whereas this month alone Netfleet has already done over $30,000 in sales.

There's also a lot of data that indicates that there is still a great deal of growth to come just for us to get to relative parity with comparable markets. Take the UK equivalent of this forum, Acorn Domains. They have nearly 10,000 members, compared to DNTrade's 300. Considering the relative population of Australia to the UK, we're behind by a factor of 10.

As for your point about the .au market being relatively illiquid, well you're right about that, no question. But that's something that will change as more people become aware of domaining and web development. It's also something we can influence ourselves by becoming members of Auda and encouraging policies that will improve liquidity (i.e. getting rid of transfer fees, paperwork, waiting times, ABN requirements etc.).

I also agree with your point that 90% of domain names aren't worth anything (it's probably more like 95% or higher), but what exactly does this prove? Domaining in Australia is still in its infancy, and as a result most people (including many on this forum) have no idea what they are doing, so of course most of the names out there are going to be garbage. Even in the more established markets, there are throngs of newbies registering worthless names in the hope of making a quick buck. The difference is that there are also a considerable number of domainers with deep pockets who *can* pick a good domain from a bad one, so if you have quality merchandise there will probably be someone around who is willing to offer you a half decent price for it.

To get back to the original premise of this thread - that ccTLD's are where the smart money is...

I think that's debatable. Some ccTLD's will probably never take off, others have probably reached their peak. But the .au market is, in my opinion, definitely where the smart money is, at least for the next few years.

Why?

- It's a market that was, up until recently, stifled by draconian legislation that has now largely been swept away
- What legislative issues remain can, and likely will, be solved in the not too distant future
- There's been huge growth over the last 2 years and we're still way behind comparable markets (e.g. the UK) in relative terms
- Australia has a healthy, wealthy and growing population that will only get more tech savvy with time
- Pretty much every decent .com.au has now been registered, so those who want to make good acquisitions (whether it's for resale or for development) will have to buy them off the secondary market

This is my line of thinking Snoopy - I'm genuinely interested to hear what your thoughts are about it.

 

[snoopy]

Snoopy, you definitely make some compelling points, but the evidence undeniably shows that the Aussie market has been growing rapidly over the last couple of years. I mean look at how far we've come already - a secondary market in Australia didn't exist 24 months ago, whereas this month alone Netfleet has already done over $30,000 in sales.

Agree, but it started at $0 two years ago, so there was always going to be rapid growth in sales totals etc.

There's also a lot of data that indicates that there is still a great deal of growth to come just for us to get to relative parity with comparable markets. Take the UK equivalent of this forum, Acorn Domains. They have nearly 10,000 members, compared to DNTrade's 300. Considering the relative population of Australia to the UK, we're behind by a factor of 10.

On one hand I think think this forum is very new compared to acorndomains, so you wouldn't expect 10% of the members regardless of the actual market for .com.au. On the other hand the .com.au is nowhere near as domainer friendly as the .co.uk market, in terms of prices, transaction costs, ease of selling etc.

As for your point about the .au market being relatively illiquid, well you're right about that, no question. But that's something that will change as more people become aware of domaining and web development. It's also something we can influence ourselves by becoming members of Auda and encouraging policies that will improve liquidity (i.e. getting rid of transfer fees, paperwork, waiting times, ABN requirements etc.).

I think it will improve over time, not sure it will get to the point of being anything like .co.uk, .com etc.

I also agree with your point that 90% of domain names aren't worth anything (it's probably more like 95% or higher), but what exactly does this prove?

It doesn't prove anything, just an explanation as to why sales venues have 1:1000 sales rates and the like, because most of the stock is worthless.

Domaining in Australia is still in its infancy, and as a result most people (including many on this forum) have no idea what they are doing, so of course most of the names out there are going to be garbage. Even in the more established markets, there are throngs of newbies registering worthless names in the hope of making a quick buck.

Agree.

The difference is that there are also a considerable number of domainers with deep pockets who *can* pick a good domain from a bad one, so if you have quality merchandise there will probably be someone around who is willing to offer you a half decent price for it.

I don't think this is true in .com.au right now.

Why?

- It's a market that was, up until recently, stifled by draconian legislation that has now largely been swept away
- What legislative issues remain can, and likely will, be solved in the not too distant future

Personally I think it will be quite a while before .com.au is completely freed up. It took AUDA 7 years to lift the selling restrictions.

- Pretty much every decent .com.au has now been registered, so those who want to make good acquisitions (whether it's for resale or for development) will have to buy them off the secondary market

This is my line of thinking Snoopy - I'm genuinely interested to hear what your thoughts are about it.

I think there is loads of very usable domains available myself.

 

[snoopy]

Now seriously ......... I have rugbyleague3d.com.au and 3drugbyleague.com.au listed for sale ........ the state of origin was broadcast in 3d (to a small audience granted) and will be again next year, the year after etc. Do you know what the highest bid I have received so far is ...... yep ... zero bids ....... LOL, not even $50. So I am with you Snoopy ..... I see no commercially sound indicators at all for investment in .au domains but then again I don't see any sound commercial indicators for investing in any domains of any extension, including .com and the new .co.

Smart business is making up their own names and we are picking up the scraps. When I am continually told that a names like cell3d.com or 3dfootball.com.au as examples are of no value beyond the recouping of registration fees I get closer and closer to reaching for the valium

DISCLAIMER: the opinions above are NOT those of the writer when he is having a good day however may possibly be the distorted manic view of the writer when he has had a real shocker of a day. The writer is still deciding whether he had a good day or not.

I think personally you'd probably be better off focusing on one or two names you can do something with rather registering 3d* everything and hoping for the best. Think about what you have a passion for/interest in.

 

[Jonathan]

Agree, but it started at $0 two years ago, so there was always going to be rapid growth in sales totals etc.

I'm not sure what you're saying here? If Netfleet was doing $100 in sales a month, it would still technically be 'rapid growth', but obviously I wouldn't be bringing it up, and you would probably be using it as evidence to support your case. I think it's fair to say that 30k/month in sales in 2 years is an indication of a rapidly growing market in both relative and absolute terms.

On one hand I think think this forum is very new compared to acorndomains, so you wouldn't expect 10% of the members regardless of the actual market for .com.au.

I think this is a chicken and egg type deal. The forum is new because it couldn't have existed 2+ years ago. All other things being equal (i.e. legislation), there is no reason to asssume why the secondary market in Australia shouldn't potentially be roughly as large as the one in the UK after accounting for population differences.

On the other hand the .com.au is nowhere near as domainer friendly as the .co.uk market, in terms of prices, transaction costs, ease of selling etc. ... I think it will improve over time, not sure it will get to the point of being anything like .co.uk, .com etc.

Why not? Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't AUDA run in a largely democratic fashion? That is, members can vote on policy changes. Members can vote on board elections. Incidentally, anyone who's interested should have a look through the AUDA constitution at http://www.auda.org.au/about/constitution

I don't think this is true in .com.au right now.

Agreed, my point wasn't that this was currently the case in the .au market, but rather that this is a natural evolution and will come with time. In fact, it's already starting to happen now - one only needs to look at how much more competitive the dropcatching services have become over the last year.

Personally I think it will be quite a while before .com.au is completely freed up. It took AUDA 7 years to lift the selling restrictions.

Again, the ball is largely in our court with this one. There is no reason to wait another 7 years for the changes we want.

I think there is loads of very usable domains available myself.

Usable, yes. But try finding a good generic product/service domain with a decent number of monthly exacts that's free to reg these days. You can still find them with a bit of luck and hard work, but they are getting few and far between.

 

[DavidL]

Snoopy, you fail understand is that big markets aren't always the best markets to invest in. The best markets to invest in are the growing markets and there's no question that .au (and many other ccTLDs) is just that (and .com is stagnant).

You said yourself that in .au there has been

rapid growth in sales totals etc

over the last few years but at the same time, don't believe that investment 3 years ago, 10 years ago or even now makes sense?

Despite so many indications to the contrary (including your own .au portfolio).

I tried to buy one of the few .au domains you'd hand registered (7 years ago wasn't it?) from you last week. You stated that you wanted 5-figures for it because it's making you so much money just parked. Was that a dud investment? What about your other .au's - any of those you'd let drop? Any you'd sell for less than $1,000?

The other thing to bear in mind in change. For any investment value to fluctuate it needs change (often more people buying or selling) and fundamental change is what can really make a difference to the investments value index.

Eg a cold winter in the US will raise the price of oil. Mad cow disease will raise the price of beef. Fear of global conflict raises the price of gold.

So what change could we conceive in the domain space.

in .au, there's plenty of possibilities to look forward to

1) increasing maturity of a very juvenile market
2) more people & businesses coming online
3) strong increase in population
4) NBN rollout
5) potential for 6-mth transfer limit to be lifted
6) transfer process to be automated so transfer fees abolished
7) removal of ABN requirement for domain regsitration
8) allowing overseas companies to easier register .au
9) reduction of registration costs
10) removal of some of auda's 'grey area policies'
11) more domainer-related investment pushing up values

Disclaimer: I'm not necessarily advocating all these policy changes!

In .com, the market it already bloated (that's why values have plummeted in the last few years). The few domainers that enter are outnumbers by the 100's of 1,000's who exit the market with their fingers burnt. com reg fees are steadily increasing. Com registration policies are as open as you can get. End-users are turning to their local ccTLD in preference to com.

Snoopy, 10 years ago, com was the place to invest., I wish I'd sunk some cash in. But by 2005/2006, that ship had sailed. It's now the turn of the ccTLDs and .au is, in my very biased opinion, one of the best to look at.

 

[snoopy]

Snoopy, you fail understand is that big markets aren't always the best markets to invest in. The best markets to invest in are the growing markets and there's no question that .au (and many other ccTLDs) is just that (and .com is stagnant).

You said yourself that in .au there has been over the last few years but at the same time, don't believe that investment 3 years ago, 10 years ago or even now makes sense?

"Growing" doesn't mean something is highlyy profitable. The .com.au market after has gone from $0 so growth was always going to be rapid. Is a lot of money being made speculating in it? I don't see it personally. The average fairly good name is worth a few hundred dollars, eg basins.com.au which sold for about $331 yesterday. If you'd registered basins.com.au 5 or 10 years ago where would you be today? You wouldn't have a very good ROI in comparison to the rest of the market, and that is for an obviously solid ecommerce term.

Despite so many indications to the contrary (including your own .au portfolio).

I tried to buy one of the few .au domains you'd hand registered (7 years ago wasn't it?) from you last week. You stated that you wanted 5-figures for it because it's making you so much money just parked. Was that a dud investment? What about your other .au's - any of those you'd let drop? Any you'd sell for less than $1,000?

The actual ROI that I have experienced has been low. If I banked on .com.au 10 years ago I doubt I would be in this industry today. I'm not sure what you are getting at when you ask if I'd drop, sell for $1000 etc. I'm not saying the names are worthless. I'm saying the overall ROI has been nowhere near the rest of the market.

In .com, the market it already bloated (that's why values have plummeted in the last few years). The few domainers that enter are outnumbers by the 100's of 1,000's who exit the market with their fingers burnt. com reg fees are steadily increasing. Com registration policies are as open as you can get. End-users are turning to their local ccTLD in preference to com.

I'm not sure what you mean by bloated, but the .com market had a huge boom from 2002-2007, values up perhaps 10-20 fold, then it had a big bust, values down maybe 60% for the premium stuff. Then there was all the PPC revenue. It is a market that has historically had big boom and big busts, it is what it is.

Snoopy, 10 years ago, com was the place to invest., I wish I'd sunk some cash in.

Hang on, you were saying investing in .com.au 10 years ago made sense? (and have been arguing that for about 6 months) :see below:

You said yourself that in .au there has been over the last few years but at the same time, don't believe that investment 3 years ago, 10 years ago or even now makes sense?

 

[DavidL]

"Growing" doesn't mean something is highlyy profitable. The .com.au market after has gone from $0 so growth was always going to be rapid. Is a lot of money being made speculating in it? I don't see it personally. The average fairly good name is worth a few hundred dollars, eg basins.com.au which sold for about $331 yesterday. If you'd registered basins.com.au 5 or 10 years ago where would you be today? You wouldn't have a very good ROI in comparison to the rest of the market, and that is for an obviously solid ecommerce term.

All I'm saying is that I would rather invest in a growing market than a shrinking market. If you think differently, that's entirely up to you!

As for basins.com.au, it was advertised for just a few hours and sold into what I freely admit is quite a small but emerging domainer's market. 'Wholesale' if you like rather than 'retail'. Sell it in a structured 7-day auction and you'd get double I'd suggest. Contact end users and you're looking 4-figs plus.

Also basins.com.au, I would bet was available to register 5 years ago. I remember in 2005, those were the sorts of names that were about.

So if you regged it back then, paid your reg fees ($80), earnt a bit through parking (say $25), it's cost you $55. Then you sell it for $331 (daily auction) or $600 (7-day auction) or $1,000 (end-user auction). Even at the worst case scenario your retun over those 5 years is 600%

And that's you're cherry-picked example of how bad an investment .au can be... lol

The actual ROI that I have experienced has been low. If I banked on .com.au 10 years ago I doubt I would be in this industry today. I'm not sure what you are getting at when you ask if I'd drop, sell for $1000 etc. I'm not saying the names are worthless. I'm saying the overall ROI has been nowhere near the rest of the market.

2001- 2005 com investment showed better ROI than .au
2005 - 2010+ .au investment showed better ROI than .com

2001 - 2010 .au showed a great ROI (as evidenced by your own hand-reg domains that are now worth $10K)

Hang on, you were saying investing in .com.au 10 years ago made sense? (and have been arguing that for about 6 months) :see below:

Yes and I still believe that. What makes you think I've changed my mind?

 

[shags38]

I really hate to come between you two ....... however .......... question, are either of you relying on the income from domaining as your sole source of income?

Just as an observation - domaining in Australia seems to be very cliquey, like an old school tie club. Is that because of the small number of domainers or is it because of the domainant )) influence of a small number on others? I've only been at it 4 months or so and feel like I know everyone. Speaking of everyone - if there are only about 3-400 active domainers in Australia as per a number suggested earlier in this thread then EVERY one of them has viewed aud.com.au at netfleet - or a few are going back often, lol - 386 views as we speak. I could probably figure it out if I bothered to read all the info but I am bewildered as to how the quality ranking works - obviously numerals earn negative demerit points (cannot be negative demerit otherwise it would be merit).

That aside the most interesting comment so far was that made in the last post above - there was actually mention of ........................ wait for it ............ "end user" - I had to look it up in wiki to refresh myself as to what that elusive creature was.

Slowly but surely, very slowly but certainly very surely I am learning about what this business isn't - there I've said it. I will play some elevator music whilst you absorb and reflect on my philosophical wit. How does the subject of accounting and enormous %age profits gain a mention on the same page as domaining (by the way, the %age profits previously mentioned are not profits but moreover a markup factor - profit is different ) Where do these rather timid creatures with deep pockets have their habitat.

It is painfully obvious that selling a .com.au domain for any semblance of the term profitable gain is about the same as finding a gold nugget whilst holidaying in Ballarat - same odds.

Problem is one cannot even have a fire sale because the only lookers and hence only potential buyers are also trying to offload. If you do know of one of these elusive speculators / investors with real money who would like to make a significantly undervalued offer for a portfolio then send him my way, I will roll out the red carpet and revel in the miniscule penny ante offerings for my blood, sweat and frayed nerve endings.



So, when do you think the .au bubble will burst?

In all that has been said about the stagnancy of dotcom, the boom and bust, the imminent end of its usefulness as a means for making money there seems to be a few considerations missing. The world itself goes through boom and bust cycles, particularly the economic aspect of our society and as much as many are appalled by it the fact is that the world revolves around money. Remember the HiTech internet market collapse - wish I had shares in some of those companies that busted then boomed - oh yes, the GFC - it actually started about 4 years ago but like a pot of water it took a while to get to boiling point, currently it is simmering, not all that far from the boil (the still very fragile US economy being the fuel that could turn up the heat). Oh, and the population is growing - more people. Oh and small business growth is very strong. And many having been thrown on the heap after many years of hard work, dedication and loyalty are starting their own small businesses, many from home. Statistics show where the growth in numbers are - in a year from now there will be more businesses operating globally than the expected number according to normal forecast formulae.

Dotcom is far from finished, it has been having a rest (the rest it had to have) and whilst the world economy, and indeed social structure of many countries, went through a necessary adjustment so did dotcom.

I for one will offload what I can of my .au domains and continue to invest in .com - if .com does happen to fall over at least I will know I had my money on the form horse in the race.

cheers and thanks for listening, you have been a wonderful audience (I would finish with a smiley however I have expended my allowance)

 

[Billy01]

If it makes you feel any better Shags

We're 6 years behind the UK.

Thats a long wait but Aust is slowly slowly at a snails pace getting there.

Yes its paper shuffling at the moment and will be for the next 24 mths is my guess until competition in selling platforms hits in a big way.

You don't think the Yanks are looking at this forum?

I haven't seen one deal in Oz yet that resembles the UK market back in 2004.

In terms of Boom try and find a story on a comapny called Boo back in 2001.

That was a boom bust alright.

 

[geodomains]

I haven't seen one deal in Oz yet that resembles the UK market back in 2004

Hey Billy,
What do you mean by this, are you saying 10x prices, 5 x prices ?

Don

 

[djuqa]

.AU names have not yet realised anywhere near their
intrinsic potential yet.

People are selling keyword .au names for less than what simiiar ccTLD's or gTLD's would sell elsewhere.

Aussie Domainers (and I use the term loosely as I consider most .au domain owners as only hobby investors, not TRUE domainers) should spend more time talking UP the .au marketplace. Not talking it DOWN.

Biggest mis-conception Aussie Name owners still have is that a .com.au site is only usable locally.
BS!

I get more traffic to a couple of my sites from Canada and Indian sub-continent than Aussie traffic.

It all depends on the content, SEO and Development not pointlessly hoping for "TYPE-in TRAFFIC to park sites". Aren't going to happen !


Get out there and start promoting & developing your .au names and it will benefit all of us when the names & sites have escalated in value.