Make you think twice before buying another name

[DavidL]

I think auction prices have risen.

Great thanks for agreeing that values have risen (I know you couldn't quite bring yourself to say it but that's what you mean, right?)

Lets take your example 179 domains, auctioned once in say 2009 for $4404 & $14677 two years later.

By my calcs for a domainer to try and do that there would be 179 x 50 = $8950 in cor fees + $3580 in renewals + selling commissions. So even if a domainer could buy into the drop market and sell into an efficient selling market (which does not exist for domainers), the result of that data would be a substantial loss.

Whilst those sales results just show the market growing (well booming actually), everybody understands that there's a lot more to making money that just throwing money at a booming market. All markets have their fluctuations, time requirements, holding costs, administration etc.

However, I will have to comment on your figures as you've gotten a few things wrong.

COR costs $18.50 at NF or $20 at VIP or Drop. I don't think any domainers pays anything like $50 anymore. So the first figure should be 179 x $20 = $3,580. Then there's the fact that this data was over 2 years not 4 years so renewal costs are not necessarily required. Let's split the difference and assume that 50% were sold just before 2 years and 50% just after so thats 90 x $20 = $1,800.

But although you were about $7,000 out in your maths, I'm sure we all take your point that even though values are booming it doesn't equate to an automatic profit for the domainers. Just like people lose money on real estate or shares in a growing market.

i'm not sure why this conversation is in the SEO area ?

Billy01 seemed to suggest that ranking changes could make domains less valuable but didn't explain why in the end.

 

[Billy01]

Thats not what I meant

Congrats London for putting on an awesome start to the day.

What I meant was that with an android phone for eg as voice search takes off on mobile the need for a great domain is more important than ever.

EG compare credit cards is what we would say into the phone

We wouldn't say as often credit cards compare

However we've seen some good sale prices in the past.

I wouldn't want to have been the buyer of these names.

I haven't bothered to look at who owns what as I don't care I just know the mobile numbers are staggering.

 

[snoopy]

Whilst those sales results just show the market growing (well booming actually), everybody understands that there's a lot more to making money that just throwing money at a booming market. All markets have their fluctuations, time requirements, holding costs, administration etc.

However, I will have to comment on your figures as you've gotten a few things wrong.

COR costs $18.50 at NF or $20 at VIP or Drop. I don't think any domainers pays anything like $50 anymore. So the first figure should be 179 x $20 = $3,580. Then there's the fact that this data was over 2 years not 4 years so renewal costs are not necessarily required. Let's split the difference and assume that 50% were sold just before 2 years and 50% just after so thats 90 x $20 = $1,800.

But although you were about $7,000 out in your maths, I'm sure we all take your point that even though values are booming it doesn't equate to an automatic profit for the domainers. Just like people lose money on real estate or shares in a growing market.


Billy01 seemed to suggest that ranking changes could make domains less valuable but didn't explain why in the end.

I don't think this is a booming market, prices have risen but you've got loads of expenses and red tape that saps a very big chunk of any profit. Stand around at any get together and see if you can hear stories of people making a lot of money from .com.au, I haven't heard any such comments. In fact a lot of people agree with my negative banter about .com.au not being a proper market, so either the are just being polite (or falling asleep) or a lot think that way as well.

The main issue though is that whilst drop prices have increased there is no liquid aftermarket for people to sell into, so when someone buys a name at auction I think it unlikely they'll find a competitive market when it is time to sell, here is a good example,

http://www.dntrade.com.au/mothersda...t4931.html?t=4931&highlight=mothersday.com.au

If there was any sort of liquid market people should be jumping all over that, instead not a peep at half the auction price. I think the .com.au bought at auction that can be flipped for a profit after a couple of years are the exception, not the norm.

 

[snoopy]

EG compare credit cards is what we would say into the phone

We wouldn't say as often credit cards compare

Don't know, it doesn't sound logical to me to type "credit cards compare", but if people do, they do, and probably just as logical (or illogical) to say it into a phone).

But we call know what will really happen,

"Search Credit Cards Compare"

"Ok searching for Birthday Cards Beware"

 

[DavidL]

I don't think this is a booming market, prices have risen...

... by 233% over two years. Dunno - in my books I'd call that 'booming'. Imagine if share prices or property had the same results.

Stand around at any get together and see if you can hear stories of people making a lot of money from .com.au, I haven't heard any such comments.

Should have been there on Friday

http://www.dntrade.com.au/mothersda...t4931.html?t=4931&highlight=mothersday.com.au

If there was any sort of liquid market people should be jumping all over that, instead not a peep at half the auction price. I think the .com.au bought at auction that can be flipped for a profit after a couple of years are the exception, not the norm.

You keep bringing up that example but that's just one solitary domain. Also your golden rule (which I agree with):

The only reliable way to gauge prices is to sell the same name twice, at the same venue, in the same manner.

doesn't apply here. From memory, that domain was bought for its starting bid after a lot of one-on-one work had gone into getting the buyer to bid. So its purchase price was less likely to be reflective of market value than say a no reserve auction. Also the sales attempt was a single thread on a forum - very different from the purchase scenario.

Maybe you didn't know the background...?

 

[Ash]

Don't know, it doesn't sound logical to me to type "credit cards compare", but if people do, they do, and probably just as logical (or illogical) to say it into a phone).

Seems to me the word 'compare' would be a filter they add to their search criteria after they realise 'credit cards' returns too many results.

 

[DavidL]

Seems to me the word 'compare' would be a filter they add to their search criteria after they realise 'credit cards' returns too many results.

Yes I think that's right. Just like search terms with 'australia' on the end often tend to have surprisingly high volumes. Also Google tends to suggest searches like these too which again would feed into the figures

 

[Billy01]

Facts that you can't ignore!

http://www.marketingmag.com.au/news...b-mobile-growth-ten-times-total-online-17720/

 

[findtim]

Should have been there on Friday

+1 , so true

tim

 

[snoopy]

... by 233% over two years. Dunno - in my books I'd call that 'booming'. Imagine if share prices or property had the same results.

Like I said there is no factoring in of real costs (cor and renewals) that domainers would pay, plus the fact that they can't get drop prices when selling.

doesn't apply here. From memory, that domain was bought for its starting bid after a lot of one-on-one work had gone into getting the buyer to bid. So its purchase price was less likely to be reflective of market value than say a no reserve auction. Also the sales attempt was a single thread on a forum - very different from the purchase scenario.

Maybe you didn't know the background...?

David, it got $7500 at drop did it not? To say it is a different scenario to how it was purchased is exactly my point.

Domainers have no real market to sell into. If they buy on the drop and then try to sell after a couple of year I think it most cases they will not be making a profit, especially after the fees they'll be paying. There is no liquid aftermarket for .com.au domains.

 

[DavidL]

Like I said there is no factoring in of real costs (cor and renewals) that domainers would pay, plus the fact that they can't get drop prices when selling.

For the umpteenth time, we're not talking about the costs of trading - just the values of the underlying asset.

We all know that there are costs associated with buying and selling domains just like with any other asset.

David, it got $7500 at drop did it not? To say it is a different scenario to how it was purchased is exactly my point.

At Drop as an aftermarket sale. Totally different method of sale to a forum post so you can't draw conclusions about any value change..

...only reliable way to gauge prices is to sell the same name twice, at the same venue, in the same manner

Domainers have no real market to sell into. If they buy on the drop and then try to sell after a couple of year I think it most cases they will not be making a profit, especially after the fees they'll be paying. There is no liquid aftermarket for .com.au domains.

Again, for the umpteenth+1 time, that's not what the discussion was about. Feel free to start a new thread though and I'll respond there (although I'm afraid I will probably agree with much of your statements)

 

[snoopy]

For the umpteenth time, we're not talking about the costs of trading - just the values of the underlying asset.

David, you keep talking about a booming market, I'm talking about how not much money is being made in reality.

When you say "we're not talking about the costs of trading", I think you should use the word *I'm*, because it is you who would prefer to ignore this.

Again, for the umpteenth+1 time, that's not what the discussion was about. Feel free to start a new thread though and I'll respond there (although I'm afraid I will probably agree with much of your statements)

David,

Reread the thread, it is about voice recognition and how it might effect the domain market, it is you who took as down this merry path......with this post below,

There is statistical evidence for this. Repeat sales of domains in an open market:

Tucked away at the bottom of this page (http://www.netfleet.com.au/domain-sales-graphs) tucked away on NF website

I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion of this tbh. Finally hard, irrefutable evidence (even snoopy was lost of words) that .au domain values are booming.

 

[DavidL]

David, you keep talking about a booming market, I'm talking about how not much money is being made in reality.

When you say "we're not talking about the costs of trading", I think you should use the word *I'm*, because it is you who would prefer to ignore this.

Not at all - I said I'd be happy to respond in another thread. I even said how I will likely agree with you on many matters.

Reread the thread, it is about voice recognition and how it might effect the domain market, it is you who took as down this merry path......with this post below,

I was simply responding to Chris' post:

Secondly - I have no statistical evidence for this but I can pretty confidently say that AU domain have been increasing in value at at least 30% year on year for the last few years as more businesses try and get their hands on them.

But yes, you are right, the original post was about voice recognition where, again, you are arguing with everybody else. So I'll leave you to argue that the technology is crap with the other guys....