Yes I see, looking at .co.uk they have around 10million .co.uk and 600k .uk. So based on that .au might be 150k-200k. (not sure of the effect of .uk delayed registration system where people have several years to register).
I think .au is going to invite more competition (from .com) though if I were Ausregistry I'd push for .au as hard as possible. I just don't think the financial risk exists for Ausregistry and AUDA, it is easy money at the expense of registrants. If they degrade the overall space I suspect they'll still be better off. Lets face it Ausregistry is only doing what any other business would do but they should not have any legitimate seat at the table in terms of making decisions for a non profit organisation.
Looks like .co.uk/.uk is now a stagnant extension and has been for several years (replace 2016 in the link below with prior years to get the data). But would revenue be any better or any worse without the change? Maybe part of the problem is companies like Ausregistry keep talking about "growing the market" as though that is a good thing when in reality there is nothing really good about growing the number of unused domains.
http://www.nominet.uk/news/reports-statistics/uk-register-statistics-2016/
Have you got any stats for .nz over time?
NEW ZEALAND https://www.dnc.org.nz/resource-library/statistics/88
Note the growth was not in .co.nz or the additional .nz they added it was in other extensions they have.
What a mess! extensions cri.nz, ac.nz Geek.nz Gen.nz ( next generation young people) Seriously does it look like they have any clue?
Did they really need another extension due to "demand" NO it seems from the statistics and uptake, drop offs non renewals after 1 year of direct .nz.
.nz was a Minus% growth as people dropped the new extension at renewal time they reported and theye where not re registered by anyone else
.co.nz
.nz
.ac.nz
.cri.nz
.geek.nz
.gen.nz
.govt.nz
.health.nz
.iwi.nz
.kiwi.nz
.maori.nz
.mil.nz
.net.nz
.org.nz
.parliament.nz
.school.nz
1994-2016
This table shows year-on-year growth in the total number of domain names registered at 31 March.
Year Domain Names Growth since previous year % growth since previous year
31 Mar 2016 656607 24339
3.85%
31 Mar 2015 632268 82487 15.00%
31 Mar 2014 549781 23580 4.48%
31 Mar 2013 526201 48513 10.16%
31 Mar 2012 477688 44505 10.27%
31 Mar 2011 433183 39689 10.09%
31 Mar 2010 393494 40064 11.34%
31 Mar 2009 353430 28708 8.84%
31 Mar 2008 324722 51970 19.05%
31 Mar 2007 272752 51319 23.18%
31 Mar 2006 221433 39338 21.6%
31 Mar 2005 182095 32826 22.0%
31 Mar 2004 149269 24324 19.5%
31 Mar 2003 124945 17899 16.7%
31 Mar 2002 107046 17825 20.0%
31 Mar 2001 89221 32456 57.2%
31 Mar 2000 56765 26170 85.5%
31 Mar 1999 30595 12341 67.6%
31 Mar 1998 18254 8094 79.7%
31 Mar 1997 10160 6533 180%
31 Mar 1996 3627 2926 417%
31 Mar 1995 701 429 158%
15 Mar 1994 * 272 --- ---
* No data available for 31 March 1994.